Thursday 22 May 2008

$135 Oil and the Ignorance of 'Analysts'.

One of the things that really pisses the Green capitalist off is the Ignorance of Analysts. Seldom has a such a bunch of overpaid, over-pampered and over-educated bunch of idiots existed.Not since before the French Revolution. Earning, and I use that word loosely, salaries and bonuses vastly more than those we, the people who invest money or paid work can only dream of. Warren Buffett has always refused to invest in firms he couldn't understand. And ever since the demise of the Dotcom boom, Brokers have tended to being very conservative on any alternative stocks. This means that most of what you hear is bollocks. If my language has offended anyone,I do apologise. It is a measure of my anger. So it goes. But because these gilded youths are precisely the geniuses responsible for the credit crunch we are all enjoying so much, can anyone think of a reason to believe a word they say? Yet Mr. Market reacts to their pronouncements as though these people actually know and understand the disruptive technology model. They don't. It would seem that just as the elite went to Cavalry Regiments prior to WW1 whilst plebs went to the infantry,once again the elite and our leadership are perfectly prepared for the previous war. All it takes is for one 'analyst' to issue a negative opinion and the stock crashes. Heaven forfend that anyone should suggest that brokers ever act to protect themselves and their interests ahead of the interests of their clients. Only cynical investors will wonder about the curious case of the Swiss Bank which downgraded all,repeat all, the Irish Banks because of worry about their exposure to the sub-prime crisis.Promptly the stocks plummet,even though the exposure of the Irish Banks was mostly imaginary. Naturaly, this is entirely unconnected to the fact that that UBS fessed up to a $multi-Billon writedown on dodgy loans a matter of days later. And at least once more subsequently. Sheer coincidence. So it goes. What raised my ire is the way one respected analyst, Cheryl Tang of Goldman Sachs downgraded Solarfun.Her claim that it would lose up to a quarter over the next year. Solarfun became a 'Sell' That would be acceptable except she upped both her price target and earnings estimate for the stock at the same time. That seems very odd,if not hypocritical. And despite solar stocks having being reporting record numbers, growth and profit lately, the weight of Goldman Sachs was enough to cause the sector as a whole to lose nearly 20%. Maddening,yes, but The Green Capitalist is used to this. Basically, the overpaid who even manage to get paid for failure are as remote from the real world as are our Judges alleged to be. It's almost as if we have an economy run by a bunch of Mammy's boys, living at home with their parents and getting fed and having laundry and ironing done for them, and hence have absolutely no idea what it costs out in the world. Sorry, Reader, for the rant.

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